The AFL's top-two race has been thrown into disarray by a stunning upset, with Essendon's remarkable victory over GWS shaking up the wildcard contention. As we approach the final rounds, the competition is more unpredictable than ever, and the battle for the top 10 spots is far from over.
In my opinion, the most fascinating development is the sudden shift in fortunes for Sydney Swans. After a string of losses, the Swans find themselves in a true race for second spot, despite their relatively easy run home. What makes this particularly intriguing is the contrast between their recent form and their strong percentage, which has kept them in the running for a top-two finish.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, has emerged as a dark horse, with a real shot at finishing second. Their easy run home, except for a tricky away game against Brisbane, has given them a chance to leapfrog Sydney. However, the Swans' strong percentage edge over Brisbane and Adelaide makes it unlikely that Hawthorn can catch them without a slip-up.
The Adelaide Crows' upset win over Sydney has opened up second spot, but it's still a long shot for them to pinch it. With Sydney's percentage edge, they're effectively two wins ahead, making it difficult for Adelaide to catch them. Nevertheless, the Crows' victory has increased their chances of making the top four, and they now have a clear path to a top-four finish.
Melbourne, despite a challenging fixture, remains in the hunt for a top-four spot. Their focus on next week's game against Geelong is crucial, as a win would virtually lock them into the top six. The Demons' percentage is an issue, but a win over the Cats would be a significant step forward.
The Western Bulldogs, with their recent win over Gold Coast, are almost locked into the finals. Their percentage, while not enough to crack the top six, means they're definitely good enough to beat at least one of Richmond, North Melbourne, or Carlton. The Bulldogs' realistic best-case scenario is finishing 6th in the final round.
Collingwood, with a two-and-a-half win margin, is in a strong position but may need all of it to secure a finals spot. Their post-bye period has been split, with an easy phase followed by a challenging one. Assuming they can beat West Coast, they'll have four chances to secure their spot.
Geelong, despite a strong percentage, has a narrow path to the top four. Their win over St Kilda has kept them in the hunt, but they'll need to win out and hope for the best. The real question is whether they can return to the top six, and that'll be decided in a crucial game against Melbourne.
St Kilda, thanks to Essendon's upset, has a clear path to the finals with 12 wins. Their remaining games against North Melbourne, Sydney, Carlton, Richmond, and Gold Coast will be crucial, with a good chance of playing finals if they win three of them.
GWS Giants, despite their recent loss to Essendon, remain in the hunt for the top 10. Their percentage lead over Carlton and North Melbourne gives them a chance, but they'll need to figure out what went wrong in their recent performance and fix it for the derby.
Carlton, with a tough fixture, is still in the hunt for the top 10. Their path to the finals is challenging, but Essendon's upset has kept them in the race. They'll need to beat Gold Coast, St Kilda, and the Bulldogs to stand a chance.
North Melbourne, with a difficult fixture, is percentage out of 10th. Their chances of making the wildcard are slim, but a win over St Kilda would be a significant step forward.
GOLD COAST SUNS, despite a strong percentage, are unlikely to win four of their remaining games, let alone five. Their chances of playing finals are slim, but a win over Carlton in Round 20 could change things.
PORT ADELAIDE, with a challenging fixture, is projected to finish 15th. Their remaining games against Brisbane, GWS, Sydney, Melbourne, and Essendon will be crucial, but they're unlikely to make a significant impact on the top 10.
WEST COAST EAGLES, with a tough run home, are projected to finish 16th. Their remaining games against Fremantle, Richmond, Collingwood, GWS, and Hawthorn will be crucial, but they're unlikely to make a significant impact on the bottom half.
ESSENDON, with the hardest fixture, is projected to finish 18th. Their remaining games against Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, and Port Adelaide will be crucial, but they're unlikely to make a significant impact on the bottom half.
RICHMOND, with a slightly easier run home, is projected to finish 17th. Their remaining games against Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Adelaide, St Kilda, and Geelong will be crucial, and they're more likely to find a third win.
